The Strauss-Howe Theory shows how history repeats itself in 80-year blocks

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What is the Strauss-Howe Theory?

Imagine history as a big wheel that keeps turning, repeating itself every 80–100 years. This wheel is split into four parts, like seasons in a year, and each part lasts about 20–25 years. These parts are called “turnings,” and they shape how people act based on the generation they’re born into. The idea comes from two guys, William Strauss and Neil Howe, who looked at American history and noticed patterns that seem to repeat over time.

Here’s how it works in plain language:

  1. The High (First Turning)
    This is like springtime. After a big crisis ends (think World War II), everyone feels hopeful and works together. Society is strong, institutions (like government or schools) are trusted, and people focus on building a better future. Example: The post-WWII boom in the 1950s.
  2. The Awakening (Second Turning)
    This is summer. People start questioning the rules and institutions from the High. They want more freedom, get passionate about big ideas (like civil rights or spirituality), and push for change. Example: The 1960s and 70s with protests and hippies.
  3. The Unraveling (Third Turning)
    This is fall. The energy from the Awakening fades, and people get more selfish or focused on their own lives. Trust in institutions drops, things feel unstable, and society starts to fray. Example: The 1990s with economic booms but growing cynicism.
  4. The Crisis (Fourth Turning)
    This is winter. Everything hits a breaking point—big problems like wars, economic crashes, or social upheaval force people to come together (or fall apart). It’s a make-or-break moment that resets society. Example: The Great Depression and WWII (1930s–40s). Some say we’re in a Fourth Turning now, starting around 2008 with the financial crisis.

The Generations Part

Each turning is tied to four types of generations that show up in the same order every cycle:

  • Prophets: Born during a High, they rebel during an Awakening (like Boomers). Eg. Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos
  • Nomads: Born during an Awakening, they toughen up during an Unraveling (like Gen X). Eg. Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg
  • Heroes: Born during an Unraveling, they unite to face a Crisis (like Millennials).
  • Artists: Born during a Crisis, they rebuild during a High (like the Silent Generation).

The theory says these generations have personalities shaped by the “season” they grow up in, and their actions drive the next turning.

Why Does It Repeat?

Strauss and Howe think it’s because each generation reacts to the world they inherit from their parents, then passes it on to their kids, who react differently. It’s like a pendulum swinging between teamwork and individualism, stability and chaos, every 80 years or so.

Where We Are Now

They argue we’re in a Fourth Turning (Crisis) that started around 2008 and might last until the late 2020s or early 2030s. Think of stuff like the financial crash, political division, or even recent global chaos—it fits their idea of a stormy “winter” that could lead to a big reset.

According to the theory, an 80-year cycle is crucial, when every four generations is associated to a crisis that impacts the ongoing social order and creates a new one.

This is visual representation of the USA 80-year history cycles, as laid out in the 1997 book ‘The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe.

History repeats itself in 80 year blocks